Thoughts on the World Details

Will Israel Trade the Golan Heights for Peace with Syria?
2008-04-23 21:13:58
BBC: Israel ready to return Golan Heights to Syria BackgroundThe Golan Heights is an a mountainous region in north east Israel that the Jewish state captured in the 1967 Six Day War from Syria and successfully defended in the 1973 Yom Kippur war. A portion of the land was returned to Syria in later years.There has long been talk of eventual Israeli return of the land to Syrian control in exchange for peace. Indirect talks mediated by Turkey have picked up pace recently.Recent eventsThere have been several recent events that are very interesting.1. The bombing of Syria’s supposed nuclear reactor2. North Korean nuclear progress3. Congressional briefing on possible Syrian-North Korean nuclear ties4. Syrian military on alert5. Israeli military on alert6. The assassination of Imad MughniyehLast September, Israeli jets bombed a building in Syria. The event was completely surrounded in mystery, with many leaks and sources pointing to the conclusion that t ...

Bush Climate Plan Too Little Too Late, No Specifics
2008-04-17 02:44:20
BackgroundPresident Bush, several months after the Bali climate conference, has announced the United States of America’s new climate policy: he wants our emissions to stop growing by the year 2025. That’s right, he wants them to stop growing. Not to go down, but to stop growing. Make sure you understand that part.Also note, the president announced little (if any) plans that would actually stop emissions from growing.AnalysisNow, there are principally three reasons for this:1. To pressure China, India and other developing countries to start thinking about climate change2. To speed up talks on a new international emissions treatyAlso, the initiative builds on the Administration’s new willingness to take a chance with an international treaty.More needs to be doneThis proposal obviously lacks any substance. First of all, only stopping emissions from growing by 2025 is too little, too late. The other problem, of course, is that Bush didn’t actually give any ideas on how to actually ...

Bad News for Obama Supporters: Polls and Don't Ask, Don't Tell
2008-04-11 01:34:44
Fox: Obama won’t demand Joint Chiefs reject ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’CNN: Poll: McCain even with Obama, ClintonBad news for Obama supporters. The poll I personally find particularly ominous. The Democratic nomination must end soon: superdelegates must endorse by June 4.Obama’s new “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy also disgusts me. Homophobia is modern day racism, sexism and anti-Semitism. And also, in an exclusive email conversation with the Obama campaign 9 months ago, I thought he made it pretty clear he would end the practice:“Senator Obama supports economic, social, and legal rights for gays and lesbians. He supports full civil unions, expanding hate crimes statutes, fighting discrimination at work and in housing and other places of public accommodation, and wants to increase adoption rights. He opposes any Constitutional ban on gay marriage, opposes the Defense of Marriage Act, and opposes the current “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy on gays in the military ...

Putin Has Only Isolated Russia Further
2008-04-08 01:56:01
Eftychis has an interesting post over at New School Politics on Putin's inability to alter the international system. He has many great points, but there's one in particular I thought was very interesting:Russia under Putin has in fact moved backwards from the proactive involvement of Yeltsin in the 1990’s. Yeltsin gained Russia G8 membership and even tried to move it closer to NATO, whereas Putin has attempted to juxtapose Russia as a competitor to NATO. Putin’s practices have only increased the isolation of Russia, had he not embarked in seven years of extreme nationalistic policies, it is likely that rising oil prices and globalization would have carried Russia much further than where it is today. ...

The Four Options for the Democratic Nomination and the Best Plan Going Forward
2008-04-03 00:36:07
There are essentially four options left for the Democratic nomination. They depend upon three factors: who wins Pennsylvania, who wins Indiana, and whether Florida or Michigan get revotes.The possibilities1.Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Indiana and Florida and Michigan get revotes.Outcome: Clinton wins2. Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Indiana and Florida and Michigan do NOT get revotes.Outcome: Clinton will win after a fight3. Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Obama wins Indiana.Outcome: Obama will win after a fight4. Obama wins Pennsylvania, Indiana.Outcome: The race is over. Obama wins nominationThe best plan moving forwardThere is one plan, which DNC chairman Dean has already proposed, which makes perfect sense no matter which way any vote goes: superdelegates must endorse by June 4. This will save time, money, and energy, and could save Democrats the election. The one thing I would add is this: new elections in Florida and Michigan are not necessary. They understood the rules when they voted to ...

North Korea Tests Short Range Missiles; North Korean Negotiating Strategy
2008-03-29 19:56:18
ABC News: North Korea Tests Short Range MissilesSummary and analysisNorth Korea test launched several short range missiles yesterday, in a not-so-veiled response to South Korean Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong’s comments. The North Koreans also kicked out South Korean diplomats. The South Korean government downplayed the missile launch, in their own not-so-veiled attempt at not provoking the North Koreans any further.North Korea’s attempt at attentionKim Jong-Il controls NK almost like a child would. Ever since the Soviet Union fell, he has resorted to provoking the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and China, in order to create divisions among the four so it can achieve its primary goal: regime survival. The promising nuclear deal appeared last year to signal the end to one of Kim’s regime’s strongest cards: the nuclear one. Now, it seems not so much (for several reasons; one of which is the fact that some in Washington believe North Korea sent nuclear technology to Syria).South Kor ...

France Pledges More Soldiers for Afghanistan; More Still Needed
2008-03-27 01:08:31
More at the International Relations BlogReuters: Sarkozy pledges more troops for AfghanistanBackgroundAfghanistan, “The Forgotten War”, has been in dire need of more, unhindered NATO troops. The remaining troops in Afghanistan from most European countries have been under strict restrictions from their government to prevent casualties. Unfortunately, this has hampered progress in Afghanistan. The U.S. has been calling for more, new troops for months.In a speech to the British parliament, French president Nicolas Sarkozy pledged more French troops for the war, and called on Britain to send more as well.Setting a precedentHopefully, these new troops will encourage other NATO countries, such as the U.K. and Germany to send more soldiers.More troops are still neededOther NATO allies, including Britain and Germany (mentioned above), Canada, Turkey and Spain still need to send more troops. A stable, safe Afghanistan will benefit all of them. ...

Retaliation for Imad Mughniyah Assassination Soon?
2008-03-23 15:54:17
Reuters: Hezbollah commander hailed as a martyrBackgroundImad Mughniyah was Hezbollah’s military commander that was the mastermind of several of Hezbollah’s most successful operations starting in the 1980s. He was on the most wanted list in both the U.S. and Israel. February 12 he was assassinated via car bomb. No one has claimed responsibility, though Hezbollah blames Israel’s Mossad, the equivalent of the Israeli CIA. A 40 day mourning period then began, and is set to end tomorrow, when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is expected to address thousands of followers at the event in Beirut's southern suburbs.Will Hezbollah retaliate for the killing?It is quite possible Hezbollah will retaliate. In 1992, after the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah leader Sayed Abbas al-Musawi, Hezbollah attacked the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Now that the 40 day mourning period is over, and Hezbollah cells have had time to collect information and to prepare for an attack, an inci ...

Taiwan Pro-Independence Party Loses Election, Referendum
2008-03-22 17:19:01
BBC: Opposition’s Ma wins Taiwan pollBackgroundMa Ying-jeou of the Kuomintag party won Taiwan presidential elections, 16% higher than his nearest rival, Frank Hsieh of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. A referendum on whether Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, should join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan was conducted along with the presidential vote. The referendum failed because enough voters did participate, although a clear majority of those who voted were in favor. The opposition boycotted the referendum, and the United States did not support the referendum.The Kuomintag party (KMT, translated as Chinese Nationalist Party), is part of the Pan-Blue coalition of Taiwanese political parties that supports eventual reunification with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). KMT has been forced to tone down their rhetoric, and has been advocating the status quo: the People’s Republic of China being the official internationally recognized China, while Taiwan ...

Will Russia Recognize the Georgia Breakaway Regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia? - NATO/U.S. Policy in Eastern Europe
2008-03-22 02:32:23
Reuters: Russia MPs urge recognition of Georgia separatistsBackgroundGeorgia, a former Soviet colony, has two de facto independent states within it: South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Neither region is recognized by any country internationally. Both regions have strong economic and political connections with Russia, and Russia has peacekeeping troops in both regions. In other words, Russia has a lot of leverage in these two areas.Russian MPs voted unanimously yesterday to urge the Kremlin to recognize the two regions as independent if Georgia succeeds in its goal to join NATO. Russia has already decided to send more peacekeepers to both breakaway states.Why is Russia being provocative?There are four main reasons Russia flaunting its influence and being confrontational:• Possible NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine• Kosovar independence• American approval of new shipments of arms to Kosovo• The European missile shieldThe first impetus for Russia’s actions is the same impetus for ...

Will the Arming of Sunni Militias in Iraq Pressure Iran?
2008-03-20 00:50:00
Daniel Graeber has an interesting article in UPI (h/t) on the long term consequences of arming Sunni militias in Iraq.But as the Sons of Iraq increasingly shed blood for the country, they are growing increasingly disenfranchised with the political rewards. Iraqis, including the Awakening Councils, want peace and stability, but as in any form of participatory government, they also want power. In Diyala province recently, members of the Sons of Iraq abandoned their checkpoints in protest of the Iraqi central government’s choice for police chief, who happened to be Shiite. That’s just one minor example of the swelling tide of political discontent emerging from the Awakening Councils, as many simply see no purpose in continuing the fight as the Awakening came with few rewards. Adding to the complexity is the tenuous cease-fire by the fighters loyal to the Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, who many of the Sawha forces fear.I had Graeber's way of thinking until last week. Then I had a realizat ...

The Math of the Democratic Delegates
2008-03-16 02:13:15
Cross posted with PoliticalGrind.comSo it’s come down to this: an all out fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination. Let’s take a quick look at the current numbers:Obama: 1402 pledged (non-super) delegatesClinton: 1240 pledged (non-super) delegatesKeep in mind, 2025 delegates are needed to win. And how many non-super delegates are left to win? 566. That means it is mathematically impossible for either candidate to win without the support of the super delegates, unless Florida and Michigan get revotes. And even then, it’s pretty unlikely that either candidate would receive enough votes; races between Clinton and Obama have been close.Ouch. That’s painful. So how many superdelegates are there? 795. That’s really not a lot. Every vote, quite literally, will count. ...

Civil Liberties, Habeas Corpus, and Abraham Lincoln
2008-03-12 21:18:52
It's been a while since I posted this, and with the President's recent veto of the torture, bill I figured it needed a repost.-----------------------------------------------------A controversial Republican president during a time of war, utilizing controversial new powers. Many, even in his own political party, were outraged when he suspended the right of habeas corpus and imprisoned many without trial. Military tribunals were authorized to try suspects quickly; money was spent without congressional authorization. Who was this president? None other than the great Abraham Lincoln.Abraham Lincoln:• Suspended the writ of habeas corpus. [1]• Spent money without congressional authorization. [1]• Imprisoned 18,000 suspected Confederate sympathizers without trial. [1]• Conducted at least 4,271 trials by military commission. [2]George W. Bush:• Defined captured enemies as "enemy combatants". [3]• Denied "enemy combatants" habeas corpus. [3]• Tried "enemy combatants" through milit ...

Nominating a New CENTCOM Chief
2008-03-12 00:19:15
BackgroundIt has just been announced that the commander of CENTCOM, the command that overseas the Middle East, Admiral Fallon, has resigned. This comes a week after a story was published in Esquire that portrayed Fallon as the only person stopping the President from going to war with Iran. In a press conference today, Robert Gates denied that those perceptions are true, but of course, you can't believe that for certain.Choosing a new chiefCongress needs to quickly approve or deny any nomination President Bush puts forward based on a couple of their key beliefs: their position on Iraq policy, Iran policy and how diplomatic they would be. Congress must nominate a moderate who can, on occasion, stand up to the Bush Administration and their sometimes radical policy. ...

Obama Doesn't Need the Veep Spot
2008-03-11 00:31:38
So, in case you’ve been living in cave for a couple of days, the Clintons have been strongly pushing a Hillary-Obama ticket. Barack has denied he is running for the veep slot, and rightfully so.This is a clever move by Clinton: she demeans Obama and looks good for the superdelegates at the same time. And of course, if the deal is successful, she gets the presidency. It’s actually pretty ingeniousObama shouldn’t do itThere are no good incentives for Obama taking the deal. He has more superdelegates, more momentum, and is the favorite (for now). And even if he accepted the deal, he would be slighted by Bill Clinton; Obama would be the junior vice president.A better dealA better deal might be this: Obama for president, Bill Richardson (or anyone experienced) for veep, and Clinton for Secretary of State. One of the biggest positives in this deal is that it eliminates Bill Clinton. Everyone wins! ...

Gallup 6 Year Poll: 93% of Muslims are Moderates
2008-03-06 23:31:08
Gallup poll: 93% of Muslims are moderatesThe study was conducted from 2001 to 2007, and was very extensive.About 93 percent of the world's 1.3 billion Muslims are moderates and only seven percent are politically radical, according to the poll, based on more than 50,000 interviews. In majority Muslim countries, overwhelming majorities said religion was a very important part of their lives -- 99 percent in Indonesia, 98 percent in Egypt, 95 percent in Pakistan.But only seven percent of the billion Muslims surveyed -- the radicals -- condoned the attacks on the United States in 2001, the poll showed. Moderate Muslims interviewed for the poll condemned the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington because innocent lives were lost and civilians killed. (AFP)To be fair, 7% of 1.3 billion is 91 million. Of course, percentage wise, this number isn't as significant.Any thoughts? ...

How Do We Convince the Public Global Warming is an Immediate Threat?
2008-03-06 00:46:15
(Special Report) – Here in the U.S., we often take it for granted how cheap our gas is. Sure, the average price is around $3.04, which is much higher than what most folks are used to. But we really don’t realize how lucky we are; Europe and Asia have it off much worse.For example:• Turkey: $10.03 per gallon• Norway: $9.6 per gallon• United Kingdom: $7.72 per gallon• Germany: $7.63 per gallon• Italy: $7.30 per gallon• Switzerland: $6.24 per gallon(source)The list goes on. The U.S. meanwhile, as mentioned, gets gas for around $3.04 a gallon. In China it’s twice as cheap: $1.51 (source).There’s a pattern of sorts here: where the gas prices are higher, more is being done to combat global warming; where the gas prices are lower, little is being done to fight global warming.And it makes sense too; it’s basic economics.I even have a fancy name for this affect: the ‘Simmons effect’. As gas prices go up, environmentalism goes up. As gas prices goes down, environmental ...

Endorsing Clinton, But Hoping Obama Wins the Nomination
2008-03-05 00:07:08
Although I endorsed Senator Clinton for the presidency several weeks ago, my position has since changed. Although I still believe Hillary Clinton would make a better president, I really have no choice. It would be better for the Democratic Party if Obama gets the nomination. It all comes down to the general election.1. If Clinton is nominated, she will have won through a fight, splitting the Democratic Party.2. John McCain could win against Clinton (he will have more of a challenge fighting Obama).3. The media hates her and loves McCain. ...

Russia Toughens Stance on Iran - Why?
2008-02-28 02:33:40
Reuters: Russia warns Iran over nuclear programThis is a strange move of sorts from Russia. The Kremlin has always been reluctant to impose sanctions on Iran, and have been only more reluctant since the infamous National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear capabilities came out at the end of last year. Why the change in the position?Recent eventsDid any recent events provoke Russi into making this move?• Kosovo independence (and Russia’s inability to prevent it)?• Upcoming Russian elections?• The recently released IAEA Iran report (which eased some pressure on Iran)?None of these events seem a likely impetus for Russia’s actions, for mostly obvious reasons:• Why would Russia want another geopolitical loss after Kosovo?• Putin is expected to stay in power in elections anyway.• The IAEA report made Iran look like the good guy.Another possibilityIt is quite possible the White House made a deal with Russia and Putin to move forward with sanctions. The details such a c ...

BREAKING: Nader to Run for President
2008-02-24 15:40:25
And once again, he announced on Meet the Press. What will this mean for the current candidates? How much will the media overblow the whole thing?It's widely believed Nader doesn't have as wide of a following as he used to. He could gain some momentum if Hillary Clinton is nominated, but otherwise, it is likely he will have a minimal effect on the election.More detailed analysis later. ...

Russia to Cut Off Energy to Europe?
2008-02-23 00:09:32
One possible Russian response to Kosovo independence that I completely left out of my analysis yesterday was the possibility that Russia could cut off energy to Europe. This strategy has been employed before and is shown to be effective.Putin might decide against this response because of the possible repercussions. ...

Kosovo Independence: Russia-Serbia Relations and Russian Reaction
2008-02-22 00:13:48
Kosovo declared independence from Serbia on Sunday, ending months of waiting. The U.S. and most other NATO nations already have or will to recognize the nation as a sovereign state. This has all been expected for months, but there are multiple variables that could change, all depending on the reaction of one country: Russia.Background – Putin’s interest in the regionThe Russian government has let the world know that it does not approve of an independent Kosovo. But why does Russia even have an interest in the region? To understand we need to travel back to rough times in Russia.Vladimir Putin took over the Russian Federation just before the turn of the twentieth century, after the economically devastating rule of President Gorbachev. Russia was weak, and the citizens of Russia didn’t like it. They had been the strongest nation on Earth, in power with the United States, for 50 years. And they wanted that prestige and influence back. Russia was sliding down a nasty slope.So along c ...

Good News: Sadr to Extend Ceasefire?
2008-02-21 22:11:19
Sources tell Reuters that "powerful Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is expected to extend a six-month ceasefire by his Mehdi Army militia."This is great news. Moqtada al-Sadr's peacefire has been one of the reasons the surge has had such military success.If he doesn't extend the ceasefireIf Sadr decides to end the ceasefire, contrary to Reuter's anonymous source's beliefs, the effect could be devastating.Shiite on Shiite violence would flare up, as would Shiite on Sunni. New chaos would only slow the already snail-paced political action.But why would Sadr want to reextend the truce?A couple of reasons:1. The U.S.The United States has kept up pressure militarily and politically to hold Sadr down. The surge was one of the key reasons the Shiite cleric called for the ceasefire; once it began winding down, Sadr could have expected to be able to end his truce and not have to worry about too many Americans. There was a change: Defense secretary Robert Gates came out last month and said troop ...

Clinton Attacks Obama... For No Reason
2008-02-20 23:49:02
I'm sure most everybody reading this has heard that Clinton has accused Obama of plagiarizing MA governor Deval Patrick's speeches.Even as a Clinton supporter, I am disgusted, and there are a few things I must point out:Obama and Patrick are good friends. I wouldn't be surprised if they did this regularly.What does Clinton gain by attacking him in this way? Nothing.Who cares? Criticize him for his policy details, would you? Not his speeches. ...

How to Blow Up Barack Obama
2008-02-17 23:18:56
Obama with a Twist by Balloon Artist Ori LivneyWatch more DIY videos on 5min.com ...

Why Romney Endorsed McCain
2008-02-15 00:10:15
Reuters: Romney endorses McCainCouldn’t be anymore expected. Just to state the obvious a little bit here, Romney’s looking for the VP nod. ...

Who Killed Imad Mughniyeh?
2008-02-13 22:51:51
A quick list of possibilities:1. The MossadMotive: Revenge; to stop him from carrying out any more attacks.2. The CIAMotive: Revenge; to stop him from carrying out any more attacks.3. A rival Hizbollah memberMotive: To move up on the Hizbollah political ladder.Stay tuned for more. ...

A Critique of Barack Obama
2008-02-13 02:00:20
Joe Klein, a writer for Time Magazine that I like very much, published this critique of Barack Obama last week. The whole article is worth a read: Inspiration vs. SubstanceObama's strength is inspiration, and it's also his weakness. In the recent past, Democrats have favored candidates who offer meaty, detailed policy prescriptions — usually to the party's detriment — and that is not Obama's game. After his Iowa victory, his stump speech had become a soufflé untroubled by much substance of any sort. He has rectified that, to some extent. He now spends some time talking about the laments of average Americans he has met along the way; then he dives into a litany of solutions he has proposed to address the laments. But those are not nearly so convincing as Clinton's versions of the same; of course, Clinton has a tragic deficit when it comes to inspiration.There is an odd, anachronistic formality to Obama's stump speech: it is always the same. It sets his audiences afire, but it does ...

Clinton Endorsement Part 2: The Issues
2008-02-10 15:32:08
After my endorsement last week of Hillary Rodham Clinton, I was criticized (rightfully) for not going into the issues enough about why I support Clinton.Clinton and Obama’s policies have very little differences. It some of the finer details on foreign policy I have concerns with.Anyway, here are my doubts about Obama in full:• His position on Iraq (would he pull out too many troops too soon?)• His foreign policy (would he really sit down with foreign leaders his first year in office face to face?)• Will he be able to stand up to Republican attacks?• Will he be able to stand up to rising world powers: Russia, China, and Iran who will take advantage of him if he shows the slightest sign of weakness?• Will he bring in too many new people? (New people are not necessarily what we need; we need to keep some of the same people who learned first hand our mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan.)Of course, I have plenty of doubts about Clinton as well:• Her electability• Her decisivene ...
Endorsement Issues

Why I am Voting Clinton – And Not Voting Obama
2008-02-05 21:14:16
Considering tomorrow I vote, it’s time to make an endorsement. It’s going to Hillary Clinton.Reason 1 – The (foreign policy) issuesI prefer Hillary Clinton’s positions to those of Barack Obama’s. I disagree with Mike Gravel’s positions so much that I won’t even mention his name in the rest of this article.Clinton has superior reasoning on nearly every major issue. Her positions on social issues may be slightly different than mine, but the president does not control domestic issues: Congress does.Instead, the president controls foreign policy and the military. Therefore, those are the most important issues in the presidential contest. Barack Obama doesn’t understand international issues as well as Clinton does. He would rather see the U.S. as a weaker state abroad; Clinton knows that the U.S. must sometimes project its power.Reason 2 – Hope is not as important as the issuesAs Massachusetts legislator Salvatore F. DiMasi put it, "To be perfectly honest, I really don't w ...
Voting

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